Blog Viewer

Based on preliminary results from the June 7 statewide primary election, California voters will elect at least 24 new State Assemblymembers and 10 new State Senators in November. This represents 30 percent of the Assembly and 25 percent of the Senate respectively. California’s Congressional delegation, which shrinks from 53 to 52 members following the last census, will see at least six new faces—four of whom may move to D.C. directly from the State Legislature. If challengers upset any incumbents, the numbers could grow.

Who’s in Control? 

In terms of political control over the State Legislature, based on the candidates that appear to have qualified for the “top two” statewide general election and the share of votes cast in each primary contest for the respective parties, it is anticipated the Democratic Party will retain supermajority control over both houses come November.

In the Assembly, the Democratic Caucus is likely to gain as many as six seats beyond their current total of 58 in the 80-member body. The Democratic Party looks to have already picked up two seats in special elections conducted in conjunction with the June 7 primary to fill vacancies in Assembly Districts 62 and 80. These special elections will be certified July 15 and the winners are expected to be sworn in for the last month of the 2021-2022 State Legislative Session.

Assembly District 62, located in Los Angeles County was left vacant by the resignation of Assemblymember Autumn Burke earlier this year. Democratic candidate Tina Simone McKinnor appears to have beaten fellow Democratic candidate Robert Pullen-Miles. Simone McKinnor is a former Chief of Staff to several State Legislators and the current Civic Engagement Director for LA VOICE.

Assembly District 80, located in San Diego County, was left vacant by the resignation of Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez. Democratic candidate David Alvarez was the clear winner of this contest, garnering 56 percent of the vote. Alvarez served eight years on the San Diego City Council and has served as a member of the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority, San Diego Association of Governments, and Metropolitan Transit System. He also served on the Board of the League of Cities’ Latino Caucus.

Few seats are likely to change political parties in the State Senate where the Democratic Party currently holds 31 of 40 seats. The most hotly contested race in the Senate could be Senate District 16, which will feature current Democratic State Senator Melissa Hurtado against Republican David Shepard, a farmer from the Porterville area of the expansive Senate District that stretches from Reedley to Arvin, taking in most of Bakersfield as well as Hanford, Delano, Wasco, and parts of Avenal and Porterville. While Shepard received 42 percent of the vote to Senator Hurtado’s 31 percent, voters collectively cast nearly equal numbers of votes for the Republican versus Democratic candidates in the race.

Republicans would have been favored to pick up at least one seat in the State Senate had the six Republican candidates in Senate District 4 not split the vote allowing the two Democratic candidates to reach the top two general election. Despite Republican candidates receiving over 56 percent of the vote collectively, the most votes received by any one Republican was 17 percent by former Congressman George Radonovich. Voters in Senate District 4, which includes Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, El Dorado, Inyo, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Mono, Nevada, Placer, Stanislaus, and Tuolumne Counties, will now choose between Democratic candidates Tim Robertson and Marie Alvarado-Gil in November.

It's Time to Build Relationships with New Lawmakers 

Given the significant turnover expected in State and U.S. Capitols, CSDA encourages special district leaders to reach out to candidates early and often to begin building relationships with the individuals seeking to represent them in the Sacramento and Washington D.C.

Use CSDA’s Special Districts Map to determine which legislative districts overlap with your special district. The online tool allows users to surface the new State Assembly, State Senate, and U.S. Congressional Districts over the top of special district boundary lines.

Below is a list of the top two vote-getters in State Assembly, State Senate, and U.S. Congressional districts that do not have an incumbent and are guaranteed to see a new lawmaker elected in November: 

*Vote percentages listed are preliminary figures as published by the California Secretary of State on June 9. Note that the top vote-getter is not necessarily the favorite to win election in November as many of these races saw multiple candidates from the same party spit the vote. In most cases such votes will likely transfer to the same party in the general election. Therefore, a better indicator is to review which party’s candidates collectively tallied the most votes at the June primary election.

State Assembly: 

State Senate: 

U.S. House of Representatives: